Author: rollyandbill

April 22, 2022

Trading with Microsoft Excel spreadsheets (and eSignal intraday tabular price data).

Since we use 35 minute price data (Open, High, Low, Close), we are usually on top of the movement  and development of medium and short trends.   But, price changes can surprise and catch a trader who is off guard and not paying attention.

So, pay attention to your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet charts as you add prices during the trading day.

Here is the Emini S&P June 2022 contract as of mid-day:

Explanation of the above chart:

Yellow dots are end-of-day markers.  Green dots are bullish momentum dots.  Gray dots are neutral momentum dots.  Red dots are bearish momentum dots.

Blue line is the blue Bill Williams Alligator line.  This is the 13 bar s.m.a. of the close, then smoothed by 8.

Red Line is the 29 bar s.m.a.  of the close.  This is our primary trend direction tool.

Using 35 minute price data.

Good luck to your trading!

December 22, 2021

Excel and trading, (free MS Excel template is available BELOW).

VALUE ADDED MONTHLY INDEX (VAMI) (When to Use it?):   When you have different trading systems and you want to compare their performance, or if you have different versions of one system and you want to compare them, it is useful to normalize the monthly returns and then compare them with VAMI calculations.   Or, you can compare your results on a monthly basis with the performance of the emini S&P (or any other tradeable).

This way, when you are finished, you can compare apples to apples, rather than apples to oranges.   With VAMI results you can evaluate the 2 sets of performance results.

Here is an example that compares the S&P to a hypothetical trading system:

Which has performed better?

 

Here is the excel demonstration file for download (no VBA, no macros).

VAMI with formulas     <—DOWNLOAD HERE

Remember, there are many other ways to compare trading system results, such as cumulative equity comparisons,  Sharpe ratio comparisons, Gain-To-Pain ratios comparison, Tharpe system performance metrics, etc., etc.

Using VAMI is a good place to start, and so here are the calculations in Excel.

Good luck with your trading!

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

Trading With Excel spreadsheet and eSignal price data.  

December 18, 2021 

To show educationally How you might use Excel spreadsheet to calculate entry targets, losses and gains, including stop loss exits, and profit exits, monthly P/(L), and much, much more!

eminiways.com

Method:  Using two (2) simple moving averages and R.S.I. as a filter. 

Purpose: To show educationally How you might use Excel to calculate entry targets, losses and gains, including stop loss exits, and profit exits, monthly P/(L), and much, much more!  All Formulas are shown and A TEMPLATE (COMPLETE TRADING SYSTEM) IS INCLUDED FOR YOUR STUDY AND EDUCATION only).

 

BONUS !  !  BONUS!  !   Swing Line chart and calculations for making a swing line chart with Excel included ! ! 

 

HERE IS THE DOWNLOAD of THE MS EXCEL Spreadsheet (no VBA, no macros):

contact us at:

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

Trading with Microsoft Excel (Using 35 minute data or 12 bars a day).

End of Day January 7, 2022

The Daryl Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMAs) give us a first look at the trend today.

At the far right above, the red dots (downward momentum) are BELOW the blue lines and BELOW the red lines, meaning an DOWNWARD TREND.

BELOW:  Another example of a trend indicator that we use is the 29 bar s.m.a. of the close (red line below) .  The second red line is the same moving average but smoothed.

The Army Green below is the Halfway Line (half way between the 3 day High and the 3 day Low).   It is shown with the 29 period s.m.a. of the close and its smoothed self both as red lines.  The Halfway line is an excellent trend indicator, and is a good trade signal as well.  We use it along with the 2 red lines as enhanced trend indication!

Lastly, we present (below) a bit more complicated chart, which uses EMA Waves (exponential moving averages of the High, Low, and Close).  We use the 29 period e.m.a. of the High, Low and Close as our default.  (Raghee Horner, who originated these, uses the 34 e.m.a. of the High, Low, and Close.)

Please see our POST about the EMA Wave (with free Excel download) in the archives.

Please see our Post about EMA Waves in our Archives.   There is a free download of a macro-free, no VBA Excel Spreadsheet available also.

SO, WHAT IS THE EMINI  TREND TODAY?

CONCLUSION: the trend is DOWN at the end of the Day, January 7, 2022.

As you can see, we have found that using Microsoft Excel is accurate, fun, and profitable!   We hope you enjoy our colorful charts, which make VISUAL TRADING so much easier.

Good luck with your trading!

contact us at:

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

Using Microsoft Excel to Visualize Price Patterns

 

Simple Trading With Excel. 

Here is a LINE CHART with 29 period EMA bands.   We show 35 minute price data, with 29 EMA of High (green line), 29 EMA of Close (blue line), 29 EMA of Low (red line).  Note: with the Excel file, you can change the EMA period if you wish, and the price data of course, and also change the colors it you wish (in your own Excel file which you can DOWNLOAD below at the bottom of the page.)

35 minute Emini S&P price data shown in all charts, for the December 2021 contract.

HOW TO MAKE THE ABOVE CHART MORE USEFUL FOR TRADING? 

FIRST, CONVERT EACH PRICE POINT (the 35 minute closing prices) INTO A COLOR DOT, BASED UPON above the EMA lines, below the EMA lines, or between the EMA lines.   Here are the color dots, green, red, blue:

AND see below, put it all together and THIS  IS WHAT A CHART LOOKS LIKE WITH THE COLOR DOTS AND THE EMA WAVE lines:   Much better and easier to use, we think!

Note how green dots are ABOVE the EMA wave, red dots are BELOW the EMA wave, and blue dots are BETWEEN the EMA wave lines?

As an example of a simple trading strategy, you could Trade Long with green dots, Trade Short with red dots, and be Neutral or OUT with blue dots.

on next line- EMA waves Excel file below for download- click on “29 bar EMA waves” below (no macros, and no VBA code)

29 bar EMA waves                   

(DOWNLOAD is above)

Note: the original ideas for the EMA waves come from Raghee Horner in her book on Forex trading ( 1997 ?) .     She prefers to use the 34 bar EMA wave, and instead of dots she prefers to use Candle Stick bars with distinctive colors (red, blue, green).   Since we are not able to do the same thing with Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, this is our solution for the time being.   The key attribute of either method is better VISIBILITY/ VISUALIZATION of trends.       

Good luck with your trading!

Please view our archives for a wide variety of Excel related and trading related information.

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

Using 35 Minute Price Data (12 bars a day)

Trading With Excel

Here is an example of how to trade with Excel, over 3+ years. Please remember all trading implies risk and monetary losses, so use the following template with caution. All traders must trade with adequate starting capital and be sure to use strict loss controls and strict and conservative sizing rules. This excel approach represents a possible approach, but does not propose to be complete or finished or exemplary in any way.

DO YOU WANT TO SEE AN EXCEL BACK-TESTING SYSTEM?

Here is a simple and non-complicated Microsoft Excel Trading System, which uses 35 minute price data for 2018, 2019, 2020, and most of 2021. Results are hypothetical and this system is presented for educational purposes only (no trading recommendations or advice is given). We offer it as a starting point for hypothesis, analysis, investigation, and statistical experimentation only, not as a completed product.

The system uses calculations for Directional Movement, developed by Welles Wilder, and the logic is explained in his book: New Concepts in Technical Trading systems.

One of the reasons for good performance is the long term bullish trend. We doubt that it would work so well in a 3-4 year ranging market with no long term trend.

(NO macros, NO VBA in the Excel spreadsheet download)

Also, please see in the archives our related post which is entitled:

“Excel Trading System Using End Of Day Price Data”

Good Luck with your trading!

Contact us at:

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

Simple Trading With Excel.

This technical indicator (shown in GREEN below) is based upon recent dips in prices and/or recent rallies in prices.   It is the halfway line between the 3 day high price line (not shown) and the 3 day low price line (not shown).  A 29 bar s.m.a. of closes is shown, and a smoothed 29 bar s.m.a. of closes is shown along side the GREEN line.  They look like this:

Chart above is from mid-September 2021 to mid-October 2021 (35 minute Closes).

We use it to CONFIRM the Trend Direction.   Prices below all 3 lines are trending SHORT.  And prices above all three lines are trending LONG.   If prices are between the moving averages and the GREEN LINE, then this is a neutral area.

Try it.   Good luck with your trading!

contact us at:

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

Trading with 35 minute price data, and Microsoft Excel

Since we are long term followers of Ira Epstein in Chicago, we thought we’d try to invent a swing line chart similar to his.

Using Excel, we have done this, and although there may be minor differences, we like these calculations so much that we have started incorporating them in our end-of-day analysis of price action.

If you wish to see how this is done in Excel, download our “example of trading system with swingline chart” in the archives.

See archives for excel demonstration of Swing Line calculations.

You can apply this to Daily Prices as well (end of day prices) with your Excel spreadsheet (see below):

see our ARCHIVES for the post on EMA Waves (the green, blue, red lines above).

here’s the link:

https://eminiways.com/2021/10/19/ema-waves-and-grab-dots/

contact us at:

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com

How Good is your trading strategy? Find out what your probability of “Ruin” is.

(Excel spreadsheet below available for download. No macros, no VBA.)

HERE’S THE FIRST WAY (which does NOT rely upon win % to calculate).

David E. Chamness had an article in Futures magazine (August 2009) entitled, “Minimizing Your Risk of Ruin”, and his formulas are independent of win%.

We will plug in our values….

1. Percent of the account that we are willing to lose and define as “ruin”,  (let us say 50%).  Some folks prefer to use 30% as their definition of ruin.

2. The Average of all our Monthly Returns (gains and losses) in percent,  say 7.68%.

3. The Standard Deviation of all our Monthly Returns (gains and losses) in percent, say 11.6%.

Excel Formula:   EXP((-2*(Average of Monthly Returns)*Percent of the account that we are willing to lose and define as “ruin”)/(Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns*Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns))

example with values from above entered:   EXP((-2*(.0768)*0.50) / (0.116 * 0.116)) =  0.34% RISK OF RUIN

HERE’S ANOTHER WAY TO CALCULATE RISK OF RUIN using other trade data:

Nauzer J. Balsara’s text, Money Management Strategies for Futures Traders, (John Wiley, 1992) presents a widely respected formula.

And Brent Penfold’s book, The Universal Principles of Successful Trading, presents the same formula very well.

The  Equation: ((1-(%Win-%Losses))/(1+(%Wins-%Losses)))^(RiskCapital/Max Loss).   This formula is easily plugged into Excel.

Example:  Assuming  %Win = .59   and    %Losses = (1-.62) = 0.41,  Risk Capital = $50,000,        Max Loss = Historic Max Loss To Date = $6,050

 Equation:    ((1- (.59 – .41)) /      (1+ (.59 – .41)))^(50,000/6,050)

                  = 4.94%   RISK OF RUIN

DOWNLOAD EXCEL EXAMPLE: (NO VBA, NO MACROS) here……………

contact us at:

therivertradingsystem@gmail.com